Should We Have COVID-19 Parties?
I have some thoughts on how to get through this pandemic. We are in a strange place right now. I have heard a million theories on how to solve this crisis so if this idea sounds similar to anyone else’s it is because it probably is.
- Stop testing for CV19. It costs too much, takes too long, and are highly inaccurate. Oh, and there really is no proven treatment.
- Let’s get it over with. Let’s let the younger generation prove their worth and do what they are good at doing. I would have anyone under 50 get out and get infected. Instead of flattening the curve we spike it higher and faster so that it is gone just as fast. We will deal with the sick young ones only if they are REALLY sick. They are not social distancing anyway. And there is NO way they will stay locked for much longer. Let them build up antibodies and become the herd immunity to buffer us older folk.
- Anyone over 50 has to be quarantined 100% for a month to let the above happen.
- Let’s get a vaccine going to give to the older group.
Why am I saying this? During the 1918 pandemic, there really was little economic impact. Amazing, right? This pandemic is KILLING the economy. People need to work. Let the people under 50 go back to work NOW. If they feel sick let them stay at work until they can’t do it. Why? They need to infect others. They need to make money.
Will some young ones get very sick? Yes.
Will this be easy to handle emotionally? No,
The bigger picture is just that. We do need to look at the whole world. If we can TRULY quarantine those who actually will listen (older folk) and are most at risk (older folk) then let’s use herd immunity to its fullest.
Now, I am open to critical thought on this, not just criticism. And, honestly, I am not even sold on my own theory, which I admit I stole from others. I don’t know if I can handle seeing a young person perish with CV19.
Fire away.
(I also would recommend we try this with anti-vaxxers first)
Ah, flattening the curve matters a great deal to front line staff without adequate PPE. And ultimately those of us who will be called in to replace them. And to the patients now, who have 2-4 fold increased mortality over their age and comorbidity predicted mortality if unable to get a vent and staff to manage it. And to future patients for years as we gradually replace those lost due to recklessly sending them into harms way to big viral loads and inadequate PPE.
Interesting article. Doc, just a question. Vitamin C is sold out everywhere, I wonder if CBD can be an alternative. Saw this piece https://cbdclinicals.com/cbd-for-the-immune-system/ and I’ve been itching to try to boost my immune system and shield myself from this corona virus. TIA!
No idea. Not studied
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/may/24/china.sars
The Guardian
“In China the civet cat is a delicacy – and may have caused SARS”
Yuen Kwok-Yung, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong (sale of civet cat is banned in Hong Kong)
“If you cannot control further jumping of such viruses from animals to humans, the same epidemic can occur again – so it is very important that we have ways of controlling the rearing, the slaughtering and the selling of these wild game animals.”
This was from 2003, in the days of SARS.
So this problem has been known for nearly 20 years, maybe longer.
For all the criticism of whether or not test kits were deployed in time, I hear precious little about the practice that caused this outbreak in the first place.
Ordinary Chinese don’t eat these animals, it’s not traditional and they can’t afford it anyway.
When you’re exercising social isolation, it’s because some super-rich types just had to have their dragon-tiger-phoenix soup. We pay the price.
Was that iPhone worth it?
Instead of letting people perish, why not allow the right to try–such as antimalarials, high-dose IV vitamin C, low-dose radiation to the chest. These have all been tried before, even in the 1940s, with success. And allow innovation with slashed bureaucratic overhead. See https://aapsonline.org/aaps-news-march-2020-a-viral-black-swan/. How about better hygiene and cleanliness? UV disinfection robots? Learn from South Korea, China, India, and other places. Putting the whole world in isolation or Hazmat suits will kill countless people and cause immune-system atrophy. Measles parties not such a bad idea–they created herd immunity and constrained most infections to the population that tolerated them best.
Oh, and here’s another link:
http://www.birdflubook.org/resources/brainerd1.pdf
It’s from 2002
“Controlling for numerous factors including initial income, density, human capital, climate, the sectoral composition of output, geography, and the legacy of slavery, the results indicate a large and robust positive effect of the influenza epidemic on per capita income growth across states during the 1920s.”
Emphasis on “during the 1920’s”…………
IF you survive the pandemic, medically as well as economically, things will get significantly better.
I have to take issue with the 1918 flu epidemic having little economic impact. There was most definitely an economic impact. Thing is, it was short-lived. Given that the 1918 flu got more young people compared to the coronavirus we’re seeing today, there was a demand for labor after the pandemic ended.
I seem to recall (not from personal experience) that something similar happened after the Black Death in Europe. If you survived the pandemic, right afterward was a good time to be a tradesman.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167629614000344
https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/3791.html
Similarly, I seem to recall times were pretty good in the 1920’s, when the influenza pandemic ended.
I suspect the people who (rightly) complain about being laid off now, will complain about the triple overtime they will be doing when this all settles down.
Problem as usual, is getting from here to there.
I am curious to see how quickly the anti-vaxxers will run to get a Covid vaccine when it comes out.
so interesting
so interesting!
I said this before the great panic began. It hasn’t apparently occurred to most people how exactly we will pay for new masks and ventilators, and to care for all the retirees we’re supposedly protecting, or restock on toilet paper when the economy has crashed.
From the start the at-risk should have been self-quarantining, and the majority of everyone else should have been working. The effects of our grotesque overreaction will be devastating.
This strategy may well do the most good with the least harm, for both humans and the economy. Everybody seems to be obsessed with flattening the curve right now and not asking what comes afterwards.
I do not think it’s a conspiracy, BUT…
If you think about what “flattening the curve” will do for the population, it becomes obvious why the usual suspects are pushing it so hard.
Statistically, flattening the curve does not mean significantly fewer deaths, but it spreads them out over a longer period.
Media loves crisis; flattening the curve gives us a longer crisis.
Those in power love crisis; flattening the curve gives them a longer crisis.
Big pharma needs time to develop and produce a vaccine which will add to their bottom line; flattening the curve gives them that time. Their profit will go away if the crisis is over when the vaccine arrives, although perhaps they can get ‘government’ to require vaccination.
I would resist assisting with flattening the curve based solely on who benefits!
Because of media and government bias, I doubt that we will ever know the actual statistics, but this latest virus from China may not prove any more deadly than the perennial flu viruses we vaccinate for each year. This whole crisis may be largely manufactured for financial and political profit. And NO I do not think it’s a conspiracy, just natural self-interest on the part of powerful parties.