Everyone is An Expert
I “borrowed” this from Peter Attia MD’s blog. I’ll take it down if he wants but it definitely makes a point. I find the differing opinions amazing even within groups of similar ideologies. I see left-wingers, many doctors, hating possible medications that could work only because the orange man said he likes it. I see some many hard-right doctors truly seeing the benefits of shutting down the economy while I see others who are calling this some type of hoax. WTF?
Here are my thoughts. And these are just opinions.
- It is possible that we have seen this virus before, or its ancestor predecessor, and that is why many have some antibodies to it and never get sick.
- I believe the testing sucks and should be questioned now because it changes how we treat this thing. We need PROVEN ab testing.
- I think some meds may actually work if given very early in the disease process but we are not even studying it that way.
- I believe it is truly weird that the Wuhan virology lab was right next to where this thing happened and there is a chance this virus has some man-made parts.
- I believe that social distancing flattened the curve.
- I believe that peaking the curve and letting all the young people get this virus, and then get immune, would have been better for the economy. Us older people would have to had to stay home during this time. I believe this would have made CV19 go away quicker though NO ONE would handle any deaths (and there would be some) of a few younger people.
- I believe that Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster are cousins and may have caused all this.
These are all opinions. It will be years before we sort out facts. Until then we need to stop blaming people and spreading bullshit.
But is fun.
“The fatal attraction of government is that it allows busybodies to impose decisions on others without paying any price themselves. That enables them to act as if there were no price, even when there are ruinous prices — paid by others.” — Thomas Sowell
This is like someone from Aztec society saying, “See, the sun came up again today. And you silly people suggested that cutting people’s hearts out didn’t actually help with anything. Dummies.”
The scary thing about the Loch Ness monster. Everybody thinks they’ve seen it’s head and neck in a famous picture.
Did it ever occur to you, that the Loch Ness monster might have been doing the backstroke at the time?
Ok, so the iconic “Surgeon’s Photograph” was debunked.
But no one including RAF photo experts has yet explained the grainy images in the Tim Dinsdale film.
So yeah, I’m sticking with Nessie.
And Nessie was happy to see you.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
Good comments by Doug and Pat. I’ll add some of my thoughts.
– The response is going to be imperfect no matter what and people are going to criticize the response no matter what. Any model we have is going to be wrong. The models are not to predict the future, they’re to help us change the future. People will take whatever they want from the model and their accuracy.
– Ideally doctors should be in a good position to opine on this, since we are used to making decisions based on incomplete information all the time. Obviously you get as much information as you can, but there are many times you have to make the best decision you can understanding you could be wrong. Yet as Doug and Pat note some doctors are quite rigid in their quest to save “even one life”.
– On testing. We need good tests but past that there has to be a plan on who to test and what to do with the results. I am pessimistic on this. We are talking testing way above what we do in our offices with flu and strep tests. It’s going to extend to businesses besides medical facilities. This would take a massive development, production and distribution effort like we have never seen, and we probably won’t see it.
– More on testing. Politicians complaining about lack of tests are taking the lazy approach and basically giving themselves an excuse for later. They are almost certainly going to have to make decisions based on inadequate testing and models. Ask them not just what they are doing to get more testing, but what is their plan to utilize them because most don’t have a clue.
– Continual lockdowns have a health cost. Patients aren’t getting cancer and other health screening. The guy who comes into your office and mentions he’s been having chest pains isn’t coming in. Elective surgeries being delayed doesn’t just mean people aren’t getting cosmetic surgeries, it means they are having to live with significant pain and other morbidities.
Good comprehensive look. To which I add:
– Anything can be justified under the rationale of “public health threat”, as this sorry episode proves (not a knee-jerk reaction, I was writing this 15 years ago).
– In the event of a sudden, surprise pandemic rapid action may well be required; the rapid recognition and correction of any overreaction is equally vital.
– Physicians are badly needed in such times…but can also do enormous damage. Too many of our colleagues are hammers and see the rest of the world only as nails. The pulmonologist/critical care intensivist I saw interviewed yesterday, said that we should not re-open our society too quickly if it cost “even one life.” I appreciate that this person may be overwrought and exhausted, but this is emotionalism and nonsense. Fauci, Birx et al have been given a frightening degree of influence to pronounce on the economy, social customs, and sports gatherings; some physicians are being given air time to proclaim that we should stay in this shut-down mode until there are no more active infections. Again, this is emotional nonsense, and impossible to achieve.
— If physicians support such overreaches beyond their expertise, then they should be asked a’ la NNT: How many saved (projected) are worth falling into a depression that could significantly harm tens of millions? How many saved (projected) are worth suspending civil liberties, and permanently altering our societal relationships? If we cannot handle those tough questions, then we should shut up.
– The same profession that has complained so long about being abused by the government has overnight embraced government control of daily lives, and has become the mouthpieces and enforcers for policies based on unproven data. It may be argued that uncritical support of such policies has ill-served patients.
– We can stop blaming if there is some humility on the part of those driving this, and a genuine recognition of competing concerns. To date that has not happened. Until then, criticism and anger are as justified as the interventions forced upon us in our own name.