But They Look Good…

A loooong Sunday overnight in the desolation of the Atlanta mega-airport (hint:  NO bars, restaurants, nada was open), interrupted interminable hours mingling with the masses boarding, deplaning, and sitting around in every variety of masks – “federal law requires” (!) of course.  Most (me included) wore the more comfortable cloth face coverings, while some sported open-sided surgical masks, and some modelled N95’s and even a few clear plastic paranoia shields over those.  

Did any of that do any good, apart from humbling the paying customers to a level acceptable for mass packaging and transport?  Vinay Prasad, MD, MPH examines the question in his comments on a study of a cluster randomized control trial conducted in Bangladesh.  The study was based on 340,000 subjects in 600 villages, with participants randomized to surgical or cloth masks, to determine relative infection rates (By “surgical” I must presume that we mean the pastel-colored tight-weave paper one with the ear loops and the bendable nose thingy, not the vaunted N95, as I couldn’t find in any of the materials where it was otherwise specified).  During the trial period, participants reporting any active Covidity would have their blood drawn to confirm infection.

“The primary findings include:

  • Cloth masks had no advantage over the control arm (no intervention), but surgical masks showed a modest, statistically significant benefit
  • The surgical mask intervention reduced symptomatic seroprevalence by 11.2%; the endpoint — COVID-19 symptoms followed by a positive COVID-19 test — occurred in 0.76% of people in the control group compared to 0.67% for those assigned to surgical mask villages.”

So the cloth masks are useless, and only for show, which we have known all along, noting that I choose that pointless adornment for both work and regulated travel.  The masks that make you look like one of those cool TV doctors, even if worn only under the chin, seem to accomplish a bit more…a little bit more.  Our analyst astutely points out that reporting COVID symptoms may be bias-susceptible, and influenced by how one feels about themselves for having worn a mask: “Some may have had other illnesses, but others may have over-reported symptoms, particularly those who did not mask.” 

If the surgi-masks really caused the drop in seroprevalence, that amounted to reducing infection in the study size by 306, or 0.09%.  Is this case (not hospitalization) reduction really enough to get excited over?  Perhaps, if that reduction can be further extrapolated to show even larger drops over a larger population, but we don’t know that yet. 

Dr. Prasad makes an interesting observation, that “the trial was conducted in a region where essentially 0% of people were immune to the virus.”  How would these findings be altered in a western nation with a significant portion of the study is vaccinated?  Hilariously, “Just 3 months after investigators left, mask usage plummeted, with the bulk of the effect (approximately two-thirds of increase in mask use) being lost.”

Prasad honestly and objectively deals with the ‘precautionary principle’ that we should consider interventions on the possibility that they may (my emphasis) do good.  I think this past year has demonstrated that large governments, large corporations, large media, and large mobs cannot be trusted with this, as it becomes a rationale and precedent for “more and longer, just in case,” without end, amen.  Prasad seems like an honest broker and one of the few MPH’s I’ve read that are reasonable, and interested in pushing science without agenda.  He links to his analysis of the Danish study on masking, using this as well to push for more cluster RCT’s to generate genuinely useable data, as opposed to quasi-religious talismans that hog up more stewardess effort in monitoring than is put into the efficient application of the drink cart.  For my money, mass masking is grossly unproven, and the added deleterious effects on the population – particularly the kids – outweighs any minuscule reduction in transmission of a virus whose aerosolized form is still flowing through masks designed to stop droplets. 

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